Sudip Kumar Sahana , Vandana Bhattacharjee.
It brings together work by leading scientists, researchers and research scholars from around the globe on all aspects of computational intelligence. The work is mainly composed of the original and unpublished results of conceptual, constructive, empirical, experimental, or theoretical work in all areas of computational intelligence. Specifically, the major topics covered include classical computational intelligence models and artificial intelligence, neural networks and deep learning, evolutionary swarm and particle algorithms, hybrid systems optimization, constraint programming, human—machine interaction, computational intelligence for web analytics, robotics, computational neurosciences, neurodynamics, bioinspired and biomorphic algorithms, cross-disciplinary topics and applications.
Soft Computing. Evolutionary Computing and Bio Inspired Algorithms. Image Processing and Cognition Systems. Diane T. Parastoo Geranmayeh. Philippe J. Christopher Giles.
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Reference lists Add a list of references from and to record detail pages. We examined this assumption using cross-sectional data from the CIDUS III study [ 59 ] and confirmed that injection behaviors, including network size, number of daily injections and frequency of sharing show no consistent association for about ten years of drug use. Fourth, APK simplifies the interrelated processes of attrition and cessation of injection drug use.
In particular, APK uses an exponential model of incarceration and mortality, and extrapolates the duration of injection drug careers based on data from the Los Angeles, CA area [ 48 ].
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Places of work, pharmacies, hospitals, and other sites could be also important for the transmission of HCV, however their epidemiological role, unlike airborne pathogens [ 69 ] is expected to be secondary to the place of residence and the drug markets for HCV spread. Similarly, although APK considers the formation of relationships through encounters, other processes might play a contributing role in relationship formation, such as introduction via mutual friends. Additionally, based on our validation studies, we believe that the simulation can provide accurate forecasting for three years and as such the best application for our simulations would be to evaluate scenarios such as public health interventions.
The forecasting range APK provides is comparable to the duration of medium-term epidemiological studies, such as those that consider syringe exchanges, behavioral and medical interventions.
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Overall, APK is the first detailed and data-rich agent-based model available for the PWID population in metropolitan Chicago and may be the most detailed model worldwide [ 17 ]. It could be adapted to other cities in the US and worldwide based on a comprehensive survey of the PWID population including their geographic locations, network connectivity and HCV infection status.
The authors would like to thank Lawrence Ouellet and Susan Mniszewski for critical reading of the manuscript. Portion of this work were done under the auspices of the U. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. National Center for Biotechnology Information , U. PLoS One. Published online Sep Marian E. Lars Kaderali, Editor. Author information Article notes Copyright and License information Disclaimer. Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
Received Jul 29; Accepted Aug Copyright notice. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Public Domain declaration, which stipulates that, once placed in the public domain, this work may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. This article has been cited by other articles in PMC. Abstract People who inject drugs PWID are at high risk for blood-borne pathogens transmitted during the sharing of contaminated injection equipment, particularly hepatitis C virus HCV.
Introduction HCV is a major public health threat with — million chronic cases worldwide [ 1 ], including 2. Materials and Methods Epidemiological and Network Datasets Four datasets were used for these studies that contained information from surveys performed with people who inject drugs. Open in a separate window. Fig 1.
Schematic representation of APK design. Geography data The Chicago metropolitan area has an area of 28, km 2 and had a population of 9. Fig 2. APK screen showing the Chicago metropolitan area. Fig 3.
Stages in the progression of infection with HCV. Table 1 HCV infection parameters. Generation of the Synthetic Population We calculated that approximately half of the estimated 32, PWID [ 35 ] in metropolitan Chicago are similar to those enrolled in harm reduction programs. Table 2 Parameters for the generation of the synthetic population.
IQR: IQR: 3. IQR: 0. Network Formation A central calculation for network formation is to determine the probability that two persons are likely to encounter each other and form a relationship that promotes HCV transmission. PWID Jan. Summary of simulated processes The simulation uses the discrete event simulation DES methodology [ 53 ], whereby the simulation steps from event to event. Statistical and sensitivity analysis procedures We performed sensitivity analysis procedures where the values of the parameters were changed and the simulation repeated times. Fig 4. Network structure validation We used raw data obtained from a social network study among young PWID from the Young Social Network Study to calibrate and validate the network formation process by comparing the distances between pairs of PWID that exchange drugs Fig 5.
Fig 5. Distances in the drug-sharing network of among young PWID age 30 or younger. Composition of the PWID population is expected to change through The composition of the population was studied over the period from January 1, through December 31 st Fig 6. Network structure of the PWID population The network structure of the PWID population at the beginning of the simulation is characterized by the presence of many isolated individuals, with the 32, PWID connected by just 14, directed connections. Fig 7. Forecast of HCV antibody prevalence in Chicago over a year span, — Fig 8. Fig 9. Fig DOCX Click here for additional data file.
Acknowledgments The authors would like to thank Lawrence Ouellet and Susan Mniszewski for critical reading of the manuscript. References 1. World Health Organization.
Hepatitis C Fact Sheet No Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. HCV statistics. El-Serag HB.
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Epidemiology of viral hepatitis and hepatocellular carcinoma. The increasing burden of mortality from viral hepatitis in the United States between and Annals of Internal Medicine. Transmission of hepatitis B, hepatitis C and human immunodeficiency viruses through unsafe injections in the developing world: model-based regional estimates.
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Prevalence of hepatitis C virus infection among injection drug users in the United States, — Clinical Infectious Diseases ; 46 : —8.